George A. Sprecace M.D.,
J.D., F.A.C.P. and Allergy
Associates of New
London,
P.C.
www.asthma.drsprecace.com
RAPID
RESPONSE (Archives)...Daily Commentary on News of the Day
This is a new
section. It will
offer fresh,
quick reactions by myself to news and events of the day, day by day, in
this rapid-fire world of ours. Of course, as in military
campaigns,
a rapid response in one direction may occasionally have to be followed
by a "strategic withdrawal" in another direction. Charge that
to
"the fog of war", and to the necessary flexibility any mental or
military
campaign must maintain to be effective. But the mission will
always
be the same: common sense, based upon facts and "real politick",
supported
by a visceral sense of Justice and a commitment to be
pro-active.
That's all I promise.
GS
AS A PERSON PROUD OF MY ITALIAN DESCENT, I could hardly believe what I was reading here. I can only hope that the present Italian government becomes a prompt victim of its own Idiocy. And in how many other European countries is this social Disease spreading?
• Dr. Fauci said he is "willing to bet
anything" that survivors of this infection will not get re-infected.
That's because they will have developed protective antibodies. So, why
are we not hearing more about the therapeutic use of this "Passive
Immunity" to treat current patients?
• As I noted earlier, Dr. Deborah Birx is
a real "keeper". You would do well to follow what she says: always
informed, reasonable...even soothing.
• One valuable by-product of this
terrible experience that is developing: a real-life study of the
front-line interactions between Federalism and the Federal Government,
as established in our U.S. Constitution and Amendments. A contrast is
available between the Federal approach of President Woodrow Wilson in
dealing in 1918 both with ending WW l and with the Spanish
Influenza...and the approach to date of President Trump, more sensitive
to the role and prerogatives of the individual States. Stay tuned: this
will produce valuable lessons for decades to come.
• There will be a time for a "postmortem"
of this entire world-wide experience. That time is not now; but it will
come. Then will be the time to consider the actions (and inactions) of
China, of the World Health Organization and its Director, of massive
world-wide travel - often without attention to personal medical
protection (travel immunizations), of the virtual disappearance of
borders between nations (except for President Trump's wise efforts for
America), of massive immigration from third world countries without
controls, of poverty and the poor who "...will always be with you", and
of the ever-present failure of those in authority to Plan for these
inevitable recurring events - long before the "end-times". And we will
always have stubborn goats, passive sheep and wily selfish wolves to
deal with. That time will come.
Meanwhile, for Americans it's "All for One and One for All".
GS
RR#2
George A. Sprecace M.D., J.D., F.A.C.P. and
Allergy Associates of New London, P.C.
asthma.drsprecace.com
THE
INVOLVED
CITIZEN - COMMON SENSE REVISITED
"As life is action and
passion, it is required of a man that he should share the passion and
action
of his times at peril of being judged not to have lived." -
Oliver
Wendell Holmes
“For better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even
though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits
who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the
twilight that knows not victory or defeat.” - Theodore Roosevelt
Here is an article offered for the pure scientists among my readers (if
any).
Extremely complex. If, while trying to read this, a non-scientist gets
a bad headache...take two aspirin and Don't call your doctor in the
morning.
Just Stop Reading.
However, the article does include a reassuring comment:
"Our analyses clearly show that SARS - CoV-2 is not a laboratory
construct or a purposefully manipulated virus".
MORE ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC:
"The Truth Will Make You Free". It will also make you less anxious.
Nearly all of the articles on which the following comments are based
may be found in this week's publications of the WSJ.
1) ON MEDICAL ASPECTS OF THIS WAR:
a) "Is Covid-19 As Deadly
As They Say?" As of today, America has about 100,000 cases and 1,000
deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1%. See also:
"Covid-19--Navigating The Uncharted", by Drs. Fauci, Lane and Redfield
(Editorial, NEJM, March 26, 2020).
We mourn and pray for each and every one of those persons who died, and
for their families. But in a War, there will be casualties.
b) "Risk, Uncertainty And Coronavirus". "We don't have enough data".
"Aye, and there's the rub".
c) "How Long Will The Lockdowns Go On"?
d) "These Drugs Are Helping Our Covid-19 Patients".
e) FDA warns: Coronavirus can be transmitted by the fecal-oral route.
f) A national Allergy / Clinical Immunology organization addresses the
use of oral corticosteroids for allergies and asthma (OK)...but
declines to deal with the question for serious / critical coronavirus
infection: "...no data".
Wrong. There is abundant Clinical evidence for its use when the
patient's Inflammatory System begins to run amok; SEPSIS. We can't wait
for the double-blind crossover study.
g) "Rationing Care Is A Surrender To Death".
We're not talking about "rationing". But we must be talking here, as in
a massive military conflict, about TRIAGE!
2) ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, ON WHICH WE ALL DEPEND:
"It's the economy, stupid".
a) A marked weakening of our economy from within could lead to social
unrest or worse in America and/or to adventurism from without...and to
War. We now have a 2.1 Trillion dollar relief package, to a wartime
President and to his implementation of the Defense Production Act. But
we cannot continue this lockdown (or worse: see Dade County Texas)
indefinitely. Our people must get back to work, accepting some
increased individual and collective risk.
3) And we can always depend on our "allies",
right? Wrong.
See: U.S.Bid To Blame China Over Coronavirus Stalls At U.N., by Wainer
and Wadhams (in theday.com, March 28, 2020).
To Be Continued...
GS
RR#3
THE CORONAVIRUS MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTION:
Not "either, or"...but BOTH AND.
MORE...
See the article by Mairead McArdle in National Review:
"Fauci: Italy...."
As I had predicted early in this story, despite the efforts of the WHO
to throw America into a uniform world pot, America is not Italy, is not
China, is not Iran.... Our problems and our solutions must be our
responses to America's experience.
GS
RR#5
TREATMENTS FOR CORONAVIRUS INFECTION.
As I suggested a short time ago: Passive Immunization with convalescent
sera has been approved by the FDA.
However, my suggestion regarding possible use of oral corticosteroids
for accompanying Sepsis is the subject of a comprehensive article in
the journal Lancet (Feb. 15, 2020). "Clinical evidence does not
support...." That is because the injury to lungs from Coronavirus is
direct and not related to Sepsis. In fact, here it may make matters
worse.
Actual Facts - observations and statistics - are finally coming in,
much better on which to base critical decisions regarding the fate of
the American people and of the entire nation.
Remember the "projected tracks of hurricanes: American model, European
model"....?
Herewith, I will provide more information (with the usual direct
citations or links, as available) - and also some more of my own
developing views for your consideration. Please review all of my Rapid
Response offerings at least as posted in March for context.
1) Dr. Anthony Fauci has been invaluable to date in providing the
available facts and also many projections regarding the future course
of this pandemic. But of what use is it to talk about long durations or
multiple waves spanning years - based upon projections and not on
available facts? Yes, he will be on record. But that does not modify
the current Anxiety and potential Panic.
At this point, I suggest that more attention be given to the
presentations of Dr Deborah Birx, who has been excellent throughout -
and who now is stressing attention to the increasing Facts and to
sticking to these in making critical decisions...like when and how to
beginning opening upAmerica to Business and Life again.
You might also want to review the recent article in the LA Times
reviewing the opinion of Nobel laureate Michael Levitt:
"Why This Nobel Laureate Predicts A Quicker Coronavirus Recovery:
'We're Going to Be Fine'".
2) More Facts: An early review of the Italian experience: "COVID-19 In Italy"
(www.medpagetoday.com).
3) Facts: What an articulate and animated N.Y. Gov. Cuomo did in 2015
when urged to buy thousands of ventilators for a possible pandemic.
4) Fact: Why don't we hear more about the great and historic medical
utility of convalescent blood sera for administration to current
patients? Vaccines give "Active Immunity - if and when available.
Convalescent sera give "Passive Immunity", available Now.
5) See the recent article by my friend and colleague Dr. Jon Gaudio, "Selfishness in the face of the coronavirus",
published in The Day. Or you can just consider a few quotes, to which I
entirely subscribe:
"selfishness...ignorance...stupidity...idiocy."
Or, as my grandmother would say, occasionally to me in staccato fashion
during my teenages:
"STUPIDO. STUPIDO. STUPIDO".
6) Facts - and opinion - by an ER Doctor In NYC (in HuffPost, March 25,
2020).
8) Fact: a sobering article, with plenty of facts, by Lee Elci ( in The
Day, March 25, 2020), "‘Wuhan Flu’ more accurately names virus and
what it means", on the increasing possibility of Social
Unrest resulting from all of this. It certainly has happened elsewhere
in history. Remember Russia in 1918 and beyond?
10) Fact: "Widening Coronavirus Crisis Threatens To
Shutter Doctors' Offices Nationwide" (in LA Times, March 24,
2020).
That is certainly actually happening in this region now. Each one has a
story - but that action is Wrong if voluntary, in my opinion.
I have made substantial changes to access to my medical office and to
related procedures. But my office will continue to be open to patient
care by appointment.
The only thing that would change that would be if I contracted the
disease.
After nearly 63 years as a physician in active care of patients, am I
supposed to sequester by myself at home in misplaced concern about only
me? No, thank you.
"JUST THE FACTS, MA'AM".
GS
RR#2
"WHY ARE YOU AFRAID? HAVE YOU NO FAITH?"
Regardless of one's Faith, these words and this Blessing should
resonate among us all.
MONDAY
through THURSDAY,
March 23 through 26,
2020
CORONAVIRUS:
"On The Other Hand..."
GS
Is
the Coronavirus as Deadly as
They Say?
Current
estimates about the
Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
By
Eran
Bendavid and
Jay
Bhattacharya
March
24, 2020 6:21 pm ET
WSJ
March 25, 2020
If
it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions
without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary
measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are
surely justified.
But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of
the
death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear
of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality
rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to
the
World Health Organization and others. So, if 100 million Americans
ultimately
get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that
estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of
those infected
who die, not the deaths from identified positive
cases.
The
latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in
testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are
limited.
But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000
and one
that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much
larger than
the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality
rate is
much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what
we know
so far.
Population
samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S.
provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes
to
evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the
passengers
were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage
who
tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater
Wuhan area
on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan
had
178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported
cases. The
fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates
based on
reported cases.
Next,
the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial
capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and
90 were
positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole
province
(population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were
actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the
number
of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is
estimated
using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be
closer to
0.06%.
In
Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to
perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely
asymptomatic
people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%.
Iceland’s
first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s
plausible that
the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double,
triple
or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also
implies a
dramatically lower fatality rate.
The
best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the
National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial
number
of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450
rostered
players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a
lower
bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative
population, and
contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we
extend
that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45
million),
we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases
reported on
March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers
imply a
fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
How
can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological
models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who
were
infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a
long time
and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts
imply that
the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true
number of
infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their
estimates
to account for these factors.
The
epidemic started in China sometime in November or December.
The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from
Wuhan on
Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of
thousands
of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing
evidence
suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of
infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1
implies
that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been
infected.
As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention,
there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six
million cases
is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two-week lag
between
infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of
0.1%. Such
a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
This
does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from
Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health
systems.
But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem
than one
that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions
around
Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is
critical. We
don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of
representative
samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is
crucial.
Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so
population
testing using this technology is now feasible.
If
we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then
measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible.
Elective
procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to
be
reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to
improve.
And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults
and
people with underlying medical conditions.
A
universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on
the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We
should
undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the
current
lockdowns.
Dr.
Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at
Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article.
SUNDAY,
March 22,
2020
RR#1
MORE ON THE CORONAVIRUS...
Informed, thoughtful, sensitive articles rather than the usual bombast.
"NOW HEAR THIS"...or rather READ THIS!
And then there are two words of caution.
7) "Trump's Embrace Of Unproven Drugs To Treat
Coronavirus Defies Science", by K. Thomas and D. Grady ( in
NYTimes, March 21, 2020).
But
Science is not always above Hubris, as when in Medical Science it
always demands the "double-blind cross-over study" while ignoring or
even denigrating the observations and judgment of "Clinical
Medicine": the manyfold interactions of doctors and patients.
Here I
refer to the suggestions about possible benefits of Hydroxychloroquine
and Azithromycin in treating this scourge. Fear not: they will be
tried...and those experiences will also be valuable.
8) "Rethinking The Virus Shutdown"
(WSJ Editorial, March 20, 2020, pA16). "But no society can safeguard
public health for long at the cost of its overall economic health".
GS
RR#2
"PANDEMIC": YOU'VE HAD ONE FOR MANY DECADES.
GS
LifeNews.com
How extreme are radical abortion activists?
They
are doing everything they can to exploit the coronavirus and kill more
babies in abortions and force you to fund abortions with your tax
dollars.
Last week, as members of Congress pushed for
legislation to help Americans dealing with the virus and the negative
economic fallout, pro-abortion Speaker Nancy Pelosi put together a
stimulus bill that would have forced Americans to pay for killing
babies in abortions.
President Trump's staff and pro-life lead
Here
at LifeNews.com we immediately sounded the alarm and our news story on
how Pelosi was caught reached millions of people and was shared almost
half a million times on Facebook.
Thankfully, Pelosi was forced
to back down and Congress eventually passed a bill with pro-life
protections to make sure you aren't required to fund abortions!
Meanwhile,
state after state is taking every precaution possible to protect
Americans from getting the coronavirus. States like California,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Louisiana, and others have issued orders to stop
elective surgeries to save medical staff and resources to treat
patients diagnosed with the virus.
There is no more elective surgery that is complete and totally
medically NOT necessary that killing a baby in an abortion!
LifeNews
has uncovered and reported on how Planned Parenthood abortion clinics
TODAY are defying those mandates and are continuing to kill innocent
unborn children in abortions!
Thankfully, in a story LifeNews
broke yesterday, the Ohio Attorney General has stepped up and is
demanding that abortion clinics in his state stop killing babies
because abortion is not necessary health care. But abortion clinics in
every other state continue to kill unborn children.
Finally, three's Joe Biden.
While
our families were beginning to deal with the virus last weekend
beginning to understand the meaning of "social distancing," Joe Biden
was telling Americans about his plans to expand abortion.
Biden
wants to make you and me pay for millions of abortions. he wants to
overturn every pro-life law nationwide that saves babies, and he wants
to pack the Supreme Court with more pro-abortion judges.
Whether
it's Nancy Pelosi, Planned Parenthood or Joe Biden, pro-abortion
extremists will stop at nothing to impose their abortion agenda on
America -- even if that means exploiting and international health
crisis to do so.
Alright:
I changed my mind, consistent with a little more time and with "a sense
of proportion". Here is a different subject, which should resonate with
all who have had a father...and even more with those who haven't.
Check out the book by Father Donald Calloway:
"Consecration to St. Joseph: The Wonders Of Our Spiritual Father".
But first read the excellent extended interview conducted with the
author ("It Takes A Father", by Joseph
Pronechen (in National Catholic Register, March 15, 2020, p5).
Whatever your Faith, and even for those without Faith: you won't be
disappointed.
GS
RR#2
NOW COMES A SAD AND CAUTIONARY TALE: ITALY, 2020.
See the article in the NYTimes, March 21, 2020, entitled: Italy, Pandemic, New
Epicenter, Has Lessons For The World"
by Jason Horowitz et al.
Clearly, there are lessons here - and also questions.
Were
there then at the outset - and now - differences between the people and
the political structure of Italy and America? Was there greater
interaction among the peoples of Italy and of China - and of America
and China? Did the famous historic and almost genetic skepticism of the
Italian people toward their government du jour play a critical role?
Did their new immigrant population (certainly not ever mentioned) play
a role?
Read the article: read it and weep. Then Unite in
complying with difficult but Common Sense measures. And unite behind
your Government, as we did with Pearl Harbor. We're Americans!
GS
TUESDAY
through FRIDAY,
March 17 through 20,
2020
RR#1
ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC.
Until
further notice, I will be restricting my RR comments and references to
this subject. Please review rrelated comments already posted throughout
this month.
1) "What To Do If You Have Covid-19",
by Ana Radelat (in The Day, March 20, 2020).
As is nearly always the case from this journalist for CTMirror.Org,
this is informative and useful.
2) The following is a helpful Editorial in The Day (March 18,
2020):
"Beware Simple Solutions To Complex Health
And Economic Crisis".
But
then The Day published an article out of the Mercury News of San Jose,
California: "Test Kits Debacle" (March 17, 2020). Thanks for Nothing.
3) "Ethicists Agree On Who Gets Treated First
When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed By Coronavirus", by Olivia
Goldhill (in Quartz: qz.com, March 19, 2020).
Read it and understand that choices and decisions may have to be made,
called "Triage"...as in military circumstances.
4)
The following type of articles are the opposite of Helpful: they can be
harmful. They are totally speculative, especially as regards America in
relation to the rest of the world. And they can easily promote Panic,
often followed by dismissal of the entire matter. Just Human Nature.
"Covid-19: How Many People Will Die?"
(in mdlinx.com/internal medicine, March 19, 2020)
5) And then there is this; why am I not surprised?
"US Officials: Foreign Disinformation Stoking
Virus Fears", by Miller and Long, Associated Press, March 16,
2020.
If you are reading this,
CONGRATULATIONS!
I
have been sharing a vast amount of information and commentary with the
public for decades via this web site (asthma.drsprecace.com).
Furthermore,
my medical practice in Allergy / Chest Diseases, including Coordination
of Care, continues without interruption and with a few appropriate
modifications due to the current situation.
MORE ON THE CORONAVIRUS SCENE,
from an informed medical observer.
1) There are a lot of MYTHS out there. Check out medlinx.com/internal-
medicine.
2) Check out "Border Chaos In Europe..." in The
Day March 17, 2020.
America
is not Europe, although some here and in Europe - and also the Director
of the World Health Organization - have tried to make it so.
3)
There is a lot of Speculation out there, most predicting worst case
scenarios. This is not only not useful; it is harmful in promoting
Panic, which can be followed by disengagement (remember "The Boy Who
Cried 'Wolf'?). It is often also self-serving - and political
weaponization.
4) Closing all schools? Not at all imaginative and still consistent
with "social distancing". A teachable moment discarded.
5) Closing all places of worship? Ditto.
6)
What we need now are facts, both medical and socio-economic. Here you
see the tension between the good Doctor / Scientist Anthony Fauci and
our Leader-In-Chief who is trying to effect a type of "Triage",
balancing the health of our Citizens with the long-term health and
survival of our Nation.
What we don't need is Hyperbole. Here I regret to quote a usually very
sober observer, Professor Alan Dershowitz:
"This
is the greatest crisis ever confronting an American president since the
Civil War. This is more dangerous than World War ll; this is more
dangerous than 9/11, Pearl Harbor."
BALONEY.
7) If you want Facts, the Truth, see:
"Elci: 'Wuhan Flu' More Accurately Names
Visus And What It Means", (in The Day, March 18, 2020).
Read it...and test how strong a stomach you have.
8) Be careful what you purchase for your health, both medical and
financial.
See: "I'm Relying On Prayer..." (in
ctmirror.org/2020/03/02).
See
also the news about the possible efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine in
treating Coronavirus. Maybe: between you and your informed physician.
But be sure to read first the potential side effects of this old and
useful medicine. Certainly, we don't need a "double-blind, cross-over
study", as Dr Fauci and other scientists would prefer, to consider it
under these circumstances.
9) And we don't need more "un-named
sources" suggesting that "Early Alarms about Possible Pandemic Went
Unheeded" - in the Washington Post, the cradle of un-named sources.
President Trump placed a ban on China travelers on February 3 - very
early in this story.
"What we need is love, sweet love"...and facts and a sense of
proportion and prayer and COMMON SENSE.
GS
MONDAY,
March 16,
2020
RR#1
This is Great, as was this man.
GS
Just like every other conservative, a decent man vilified by the left.
Please read the several posts I placed on my RR this weekend, with
informative articles appended.
The
article provided below is, I believe, a particular example of
scientific hubris. And the way it is presented is sure to
promote
panic - not good.
How can I be sure? I am not sure. But I am
paying attention (with a file exceeding 2" in depth, and growing
daily); and I have been paying attention for nearly 63 years as a
physician.
The following represent my best educated guesses at
present, on which I am willing to stake my life (perhaps literally) at
present and subject to change with future developments.
America's
"pandemic" is NOT that of China or South Korea or Japan or Italy or
Europe or ir Iran or the world. America will be a "special case" for a
variety of reasons - both based on America and based on those other
regions.
There will be ample time for regret over what the
developing panic here will have done unnecessarily to our collective
lives and to our fortunes.
Only persons who show compatible symptoms should be tested.
The push to test everyone is stupid and dangerous.
With
over 80% of Actual Victims expected to get No or Mild symptoms, the
concept of Herd Immunity has to be considered. (Look it Up).
I
agree with reasonable "Social Distancing" at long as it is reasonable
and Common Sense. But I cringe regarding the school closures and the
vast disruptions that will cause. There could be a better way: no
bussing; no classrooms - only auditoria, gyms and other large spaces
for "distancing" - a teachable moment for the kids.
The concept
of Triage should be a Must in the potentially limited hospital setting.
And hospital admissions must be limited: besides the above-noted 80%,
an estimated 14% will have moderately severe illnesses, often treatable
at home - including "TeleMedicine", which I have been practising for
decades; and 6% will have critical and possibly fatal illnesses. Even
here, a more open-minded medical approach to treatment may be very
useful...like considering the (usually counter-intuitive) use of
substantial Steroids) to counter the deadly effects of an Inflammatory
response Run Amok.
The worst part of this scene here in America
is the Weaponizaton of facts and fancy to harm President Trump. As a
result, the consequences even here will be worse than they would have
been without that damnable exercise.
That's the best I can do for now, subject to change with notice.
Meanwhile, Use Common
Sense and "Don't Worry, Be Happy!"
THIS EDITORIAL FROM THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER (MARCH 10, 2020) WAS
RE-PUBLISHED IN THE DAY. "Women's Right To Choose
Is Eroding".
"...on-going erosion of reproductive rights."
"Anti-choice advocates..."
"...defenders of reproductive rights...."
"A woman's ability to plan when she has a child...."
AND WHAT ABOUT THE OTHER LIVING HUMAN BEING INVOLVED IN THIS "CHOICE"?
WHAT ABOUT A MOTHER'S RESPONSIBILITY TOWARD HER BABY?
WHAT ABOUT A FATHER'S RESPONSIBILITY, BEFORE AND AFTER THE ACT THAT
PRODUCED THAT LIVING HUMAN BEING?
WHAT ABOUT A PHYSICIAN'S RESPONSIBILITY TO BOTH OF HIS
PATIENTS?
A responsible newspaper should not be promoting this claptrap.
GS
RR#2
"THE TRUTH, THE WHOLE TRUTH, AND NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH".
More "About the Corona
Virus Pandemic",
about which I published in this "Rapid Response" section on March 13,
2020.
A
great deal has taken place in the last 24 hours, particularly
in
terms of the massive Public-Private national initiative developed by
President Trump and his teams. My comments noted above are still quite
relevant. But they can now be expanded based upon several
excellent reports which I share herein.
1) "Coronavirus Vs. Flu: A Comparison",
by Betsy McKay (in WSJ March 13, 2020, Special Report, pR7).
Actually,
the hard data are not yet clear, but: a) they are both more or less
similarly transmissible; b) their mortality rate is probably more or
less similar at around 1%; c) the vast majority of cases (around 80%)
presented with either no or mild symptoms. Another 14% were severely
ill, and 6% were critical.
2) "Divergence In Strategy Holds Lesson For U.S.",
by Martin and Walker (in WSJ March 14-15, 2020, pA10).
"Corona Virus Cripples Italy", by
Sabrina Ferrisi (in National Catholic Register March 15-28,2020, pA1).
A
comparison of the experience so far in South Korea and in Italy is
instructive. It appears to be a case of East vs. West. In the Far East,
with or without a dictatorship, "The Confucian emphasis on respect for
authority, social stability and the good of the nation above
individualism is an ameliorating factor in a time of national crisis".
In Western cultures, individualism and suspicion of authority can
produce a different result - or at least a more difficult process.
3) "Europe's Coronavirus Fate Is Already Sealed",
by Joseph C. Sternberg (in WSJ March 13, 2020, Opinion, pA15).
The
thesis here is based on how the European nations finance their Health
Care. Italy and the U.K. rely predominantly on government financing (
79% and 74%) and lag substantially behind health care investment in
Germany and France (6% and 5%) which have compulsory insurance schemes.
Thus their relative capabilities to meet a health care delivery crisis
are very different. That is why Italy has had to admit to making
substantial use of Triage, well known in war, in caring for
patients.
4) See also: "How To Navigate The Coronavirus", a Special Section in
WSJ March 13, 2020, pR1. A lot of useful information.
All
of this is why I believe that America is a "Special Case", Western,
Individualistic, but capable of Uniting in response to a serious
challenge.
We have done it before. We will do it now. Meanwhile,
individually...just use Common Sense.
GS
THURSDAY
and FRIDAY, March 12 and 13,
2020
RR#1
ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS "PANDEMIC".
The following are some helpful articles, as well as some personal
observations.
At
this point, here are some personal observations / "guesses" that I have
developed based upon: a) the typical 'hair-on-fire" reportage from the
media; b) the early and continued efforts of the World Health
Organization to plant the current American experience squarely into
that of the World; c) the weaponization of the entire story here for
partisan gain; d) the belief that nothing emanating from China can be
accepted at face value.
A) Even on a good day, very scarce any more, the mainstream media
promotes high anxiety and panic - it sells;
B
) These two words expressed by President Trump in his recent address to
the nation were right on point:"...foreign virus...." What is
happening in America is a far cry from what is happening in the rest of
the world. There are several reasons for this, including the early
action taken here to exclude Chinese travelers from entering this
country. That is and was impossible for all of Europe and
Eurasia, invaded by millions of migrants - many from the Middle East
and from Africa, episodic hot-beds for viruses like MERS and EBOlA.
C) The well-established disease called "Trump Derangement Syndrome"
is poised in this election year to break out into an even more virulent
form.
D)
Although some of the actions being taken on Wall Street and Main Street
are prudent, I suspect that "when the smoke clears" we will have a lot
to regret.
E) Imagine if last Fall we were suddenly told that "the
new URI Virus" was breaking out through the country and the
world, and that millions of people were coming down with it - with some
actually dying from it.
"URI=Upper respiratory infection", otherwise known as the "common
cold".
I am not making light of this. But folks, Get A Grip!
Ultimately my only advice is: USE COMMON SENSE!
GS
RR#2
REGARDING CHINA:
NOTHING NEW SINCE MAO TOOK OVER IN 1950.
And we Still Haven't Learned! It's the almighty Buck...and STUPIDITY.
MORE ON CHINA,
FOR WHICH WE DEPEND ON OVER 90% OF THE RAW MATERIALS FOR OUR
ANTIBIOTICS....
This is henceforth not just Greed and Stupidity.
It is Treason. It is also Suicide!
THIS IS ABOUT LIFE AND
DEATH...AND ABOUT THE CHOICES WE MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER.
I have a personal prayer:
"I Love You. I Trust You. Thy Will Be Done. I Am Yours."
I
also believe that, consistent with that position, we can have a role to
play in our last days...totally excluding euthanasia, physician -
assisted suicide, and all suicide.
To clarify, I suggest you read three articles - and then discuss them
with your spiritual advisor.
a) "MY FATHER'S PASSPORT",
by Christine Hemp (in NYTimes Jan. 23, 2020). I believe that a rational
and also spiritual choice might be made under such circumstances,
consistent with "The Will Of God".
b) Google Search: "Billionaire
Dead From Pancreatic Cancer".
Steve Jobs was unfortunately not rational in placing his treatment in
delusions for too long a time.
See also the article about him and his wife (Laurene Powell Jobs) ( in
NYTimes March 1, 2020, Sunday Business).
c) "PREPARING FOR A GOOD END OF LIFE",
by Katy Butler (in WSJ Feb. 9-10, 2020, Review, pC1).
Then, having done the above: "Don't Worry...Be Happy!"
REMEMBERING
THE GREAT
YEARS OF AMERICAN CINEMA,
AND THEIR GREAT
CREATORS.
See another great Netflix Documentary, generally the best viewing to be
had: "FIVE
CAME BACK":
The stories of directors Stevens, Wyler, Ford, Capra and Houston
during WW ll, and how they came back with their own individual versions
of PTSD that enabled them to do their greatest work.
Just two examples:
"The Best Years Of Our Life", by William Wyler.
"It's A Wonderful Life", by Frank Capra.
And how Stevens could no longer do comedy after his wartime experience.
This will also remind us of the many great actors who fought in that
war.
Great American History.
GS
TUESDAY
through THURSDAY, March 3 through 5,
2020
JUST THE
FACTS...NOT THE POLITICS OR WEAPONIZATION.
LISTEN UP, FOLKS, WHETHER REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT OR INDEPENDENT,
WHETHER SPIRITUAL OR ATHEIST?
Do these stories and these people reflect you and your values?
I certainly hope not, for your sake.
